Số No. 05 (36) (36)-2025 Journal of Finance & Accounting Research - Trang 135

Tóm tắt tiếng Việt:

English Summary:

Amid the recent inflationary fluctuations in Japan following a prolonged period of low inflation, this study aims to examine the impact of Japanese inflation and the real exchange rate (JPY/VND) on the bilateral trade balance between Vietnam and Japan. The research employs monthly time-series secondary data from January 2009 to December 2024, collected from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Japan’s Statistical Portal, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Three research hypotheses are developed and tested through two econometric models using multicollinearity diagnostics, unit root tests, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, and bound testing procedures. The findings of this study not only contribute to theoretical understanding but also offer practical policy recommendations to mitigate risks, reduce import dependence, enhance competitiveness, stabilize exchange rates, and promote sustainable trade between Vietnam and Japan.

Từ khóa: inflation, real exchange rate, trade balance, JPY/VND exchange rate.

Số lượt đọc: 31 - Số lượt tải về: 15

DOI Code: https://doi.org/10.71374/jfar.v25.i5.27