Số No. 05 (36) (36)-2025 Journal of Finance & Accounting Research - Trang 5

Tóm tắt tiếng Việt:

English Summary:

This paper applies the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model to forecast the quarterly state budget revenue of Cau Giay Tax Department for 2025. Using time-series data from Q1/2020 to Q1/2025 and employing IBM SPSS software, the study evaluates forecast accuracy through MAPE and other model fit statistics. The results show a MAPE of 12.636% and R² of 0.791, indicating that the multiplicative Holt-Winters model provides a reliable short-term forecast. These findings can serve as a scientific basis for improving budget planning at the local level.

Từ khóa: state budget revenue forecast, exponential smoothing, holt-winters, SPSS.

Số lượt đọc: 25 - Số lượt tải về: 15

DOI Code: https://doi.org/10.71374/jfar.v25.i5.01